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Tuesday, January 6th, 2009
articles.php?which=BlackMondaySoWhat
Black Monday: So What?

When the markets started going berserk yesterday, we asked whether you thought what some (hysterical) analysts were calling "financial armageddon" would have any real impact on start-ups. More to the point, we also wondered whether you'd just figure the downturn into your business plan and go ahead with your small business launch anyway. Lehman's problems are Lehman's problems, right?

Of course, it was only a matter of time for the talking heads started weighing on things. In light of the question we posed yesterday, we've paraphrased what a few financial experts told Forbes Magazine about how the events of the past two days may impact small business, along with a few tips on mitigating risk. Here's a few of their (heavily) edited points:

-As far as your business plan goes, make sure you've developed a worst case scenario to show you've planned properly should things get worse.

-Three phenomena could have a significant impact on small business: diminished liquidity, risk repricing, and corporate earnings contractions. BUT, none of those have happened yet, and they represent an "extreme scenario." So, um, don't worry.

-With respect to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the effect on small businesses is indirect. The impact will most likely be felt as a result of the dealings other banks have with Lehman. What that means is that some banks may put a hold on lending decisions until they can assess the impact on their bottom line.

-An AIG filing (which hasn't happened yet) would have much greater significance on small businesses, many who insure through AIG Small Business.

-Make sure you don't have a bank account with more than $100,000 in it. This the largest amount the FDIC insures.

-The most "far-reaching repercussion" of recent events will likely be increased scrutiny on expenditures, both externally from investors and internally on operational expenses.

-Use the influx of recently laid-off talent into the market to your advantage (didn't you see all the people filing out of Lehman yesterday with boxes?!): hire them.

While we're all speculating, what's your take on how this shake-up could impact start-ups?

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